Preliminary results from Graduation programme – Bram Thuysbaert

Who are the ultea poor? Most had hat least two meals in the previous day, but most faced food and fuel shortgages. They’re especially vulnerable to shocks – especially health. In Pakistan, 12% of household income went on medical expenses, and almost a third in the Indian studies had expeirenced a health shock in the previous year.

So the way to measure effect of the program is to look to the counter-factual – ie how would they have changed in absence of the program. We therefore are trying to understand the causal effects of the programme.

It starts with a baseline survey, then quarterly consumptions surveys, a follow-up survey after 2 years, then another 1 year later.The sample is several hundred households in a few tens of villages. The survey modules include health indicators, education, consumption, asset, income, credit, risk references etc.

Preliminary results?

West Bengal: results from 2nd follow-up survey show 7% increase in food consumption and 20% increase in non-food consumption. A 14% increase in share of households that reports having enough food every day. A large effect on animal holdings, and income. In terms of savings, no statistically significant increase in savings. So thats the general good news.

A second survey in Andhra Pradesh among SKS clients, no effects on consumption or food security. There was increase income from livestocks but self-employment displaces wage labor; there is no net effect on income.

A third in Pakistan showed strong positive changes in food security and consumption, assets and income generation.

In Honduras, there was no effect on comsumption and non-food expenditures, but some increase in food security, savings, mental health and livestock owned.

So clearly there is variation in success of the programmes…..

Overral, first results very promising, but are some areas less suitable for graduation models than other places? We need to look long term and at cost-effectiveness to get definitive answers, but those answer may come within a few months.